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25-Sep-2022 3:15am
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 250536 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ian, located over the western Caribbean Sea, on Tropical Storm Gaston, located near the western Azores, and on Tropical Depression Hermine, located over the far eastern Atlantic. Central Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal shower activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves very little through the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions could become marginally more conducive for development by the middle portion of next week, when the system is forecast to begin moving slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Gaston (AT3/AL082022)
...GASTON STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... As of 6:00 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 the center of Gaston was located near 38.8, -33.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Gaston Public Advisory Number 19A
Issued at 600 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250531 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 600 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...GASTON STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 33.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 33.9 West. Gaston is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-southwest is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the western Azores for a few more hours. See products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6 inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 33.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 33.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 32.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N 35.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.7N 37.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.4N 39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.2N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.8N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 33.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250231 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022 Gaston has been interacting with an upper-level trough just to its west for the past several hours, which has helped to regenerate deep convection over the northern semicircle. This has bought Gaston some more time as a tropical cyclone. A pair of recent scatterometer overpasses revealed a swath of 35-42 kt winds over the northern semicircle of the tropical storm, which indicates that it is stronger than previously estimated. Assuming some undersampling by the scatterometer, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt to reflect this new data. The upper trough that is helping to maintain the deep convection is forecast to lift northward later this morning and be replaced by a ridge, which should induce strong northwesterly shear over Gaston. The combination of this shear, relatively cool SSTs of about 24 degrees C, and the presence of dry air should cause Gaston's current convection to dissipate today, resulting in the system becoming post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher through 24 h due to the adjusted initial intensity and is unchanged from the previous forecast after that time. Gaston continues its westward motion at 10 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. By Monday, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-southwestward and possibly southwestward as the ridge builds its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and closely follows the track consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should diminish by midday as Gaston moves away from the islands. 2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and central Azores through midday. This rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 38.6N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 38.9N 35.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/0000Z 38.7N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1200Z 38.4N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 37.9N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 37.2N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 36.8N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Tropical Storm Gaston Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
000
FONT13 KNHC 250231
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Gaston Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 05:32:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:22:44 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IAN... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 the center of Ian was located near 14.7, -78.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 8A
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 085 WTNT34 KNHC 250543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 78.3W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 78.3 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin soon. Ian is expected to become a hurricane later today and reach major hurricane strength by late Monday before it reaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight or early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA... MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND CAYMAN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 77.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 77.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 77.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W...WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 77.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250253 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 A NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter jet flew a surveillance around and across Ian at high altitude earlier this evening and dropped several dropsondes near the estimated center. The surface winds from the instruments suggested that Ian had an elongated surface circulation from northwest to southeast, but one dropsonde in particular had a lower pressure than the others, which helped to located the center. Some new convection has been forming near this location recently, which provides a little more confidence in the estimate. The minimum pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, a consensus of satellite intensity estimates suggests that the maximum winds are now near 45 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Ian expected to curve around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. There has also been little change in the individual model solutions--the ECMWF remains on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and the GFS remains on the western side. Since there has been no significant change in the guidance, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one through day 3, although it has been nudged slightly westward (again) on days 4 and 5 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the direction of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Ian is now in an environment of low shear and high atmospheric moisture and over waters of high ocean heat content. Once the circulation becomes vertically stacked, which should be soon, these conditions favor rapid intensification (RI) while Ian moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Several RI indices support this scenario, with the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) in particular showing a greater than 90 percent chance of RI during the ensuing 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC official forecast explicitly shows RI beginning on Sunday, with Ian predicted to peak at category 4 intensity over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days. By days 4 and 5, global models are leaning toward a scenario where Ian enters into an environment of very strong southwesterly shear, and weakening is therefore expected while Ian approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. That said, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts despite any potential weakening. Users are urged to not focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day forecasts and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may produce across portions of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out. 2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand Cayman beginning early Monday. 3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba. 4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week, but uncertainty in the long-term track and intensity forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA 72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 250253
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 22(44)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 18(41)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 14(31)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 11(30)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 11(31)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 8(26)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 6(23)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) 2(35)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 10(43) 2(45)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 22(43) 5(48)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 6(35)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 35(53) 9(62)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 7(28)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 38(48) 15(63)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 20(62)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 27(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 25(50)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 24(64)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 16(36)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 21(71)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 17(44)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 21(56)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 13(47)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 3(26) X(26)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 48(84) 3(87) X(87)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 49(60) 3(63) X(63)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 2(45) X(45)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 37(54) 4(58) 1(59)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) X(20)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 45(53) 19(72) 1(73) X(73)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 17(33) X(33) X(33)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 3( 4) 52(56) 10(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MONTEGO BAY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KINGSTON 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ian Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 05:43:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:29:05 GMT
Summary for Tropical Depression Hermine (AT5/AL102022)
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 the center of Hermine was located near 22.9, -20.3 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Hermine Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hermine Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 20.3W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hermine was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 20.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm) inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches (250 mm) across the Canary Islands through Monday. This rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tropical Depression Hermine Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 20.3W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 20.3W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 20.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.7N 19.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.2N 20.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 21.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.1N 23.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 20.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Depression Hermine Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250232 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022 Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped away the cyclone's deep convection across the Canary Islands. The advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI value from TAFB. The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to 50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it to turn west-northwestward or northwestward. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 22.9N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 24.7N 19.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 25.2N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 25.5N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 26.1N 23.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Tropical Depression Hermine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
000
FONT15 KNHC 250232
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Depression Hermine Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 02:33:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:34:51 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 250508 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Newton, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Depression Newton (EP5/EP152022)
...NEWTON IS BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 the center of Newton was located near 19.5, -114.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Newton Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...NEWTON IS BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 114.8W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 114.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. A gradual turn toward the southwest is expected by late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow weakening is anticipated once Newton becomes a post-tropical remnant low, potentially as soon as tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 860 WTPZ25 KNHC 250233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 053 WTPZ45 KNHC 250234 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized, it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment (700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and moderate wind shear. Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the next few days, various global models suggest it could become post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3. Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Newton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 250234
PWSEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 115W 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Newton Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 02:35:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:40:42 GMT