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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250536
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Ian, located over the western Caribbean Sea, on Tropical 
Storm Gaston, located near the western Azores, and on Tropical 
Depression Hermine, located over the far eastern Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal shower activity. Any 
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves 
very little through the early portion of next week. Environmental 
conditions could become marginally more conducive for development by 
the middle portion of next week, when the system is forecast to 
begin moving slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Gaston (AT3/AL082022)

...GASTON STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
 As of 6:00 AM GMT Sun Sep 25
 the center of Gaston was located near 38.8, -33.9
 with movement W at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Gaston Public Advisory Number 19A

Issued at 600 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 250531
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
600 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
...GASTON STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 33.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 33.9 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today.  A turn to the
west-southwest is forecast by Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or 
tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for a few more hours.  See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores for more information.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.
 
RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central
Azores.  This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 250231
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  33.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  33.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  32.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N  35.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.7N  37.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.4N  39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.9N  41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.2N  44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.8N  46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N  33.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 250231
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
Gaston has been interacting with an upper-level trough just to its 
west for the past several hours, which has helped to regenerate deep 
convection over the northern semicircle. This has bought Gaston some 
more time as a tropical cyclone. A pair of recent scatterometer 
overpasses revealed a swath of 35-42 kt winds over the northern 
semicircle of the tropical storm, which indicates that it is 
stronger than previously estimated. Assuming some undersampling by 
the scatterometer, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt 
to reflect this new data.
 
The upper trough that is helping to maintain the deep convection is
forecast to lift northward later this morning and be replaced by a
ridge, which should induce strong northwesterly shear over Gaston.
The combination of this shear, relatively cool SSTs of about 24
degrees C, and the presence of dry air should cause Gaston's current
convection to dissipate today, resulting in the system becoming
post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher
through 24 h due to the adjusted initial intensity and is unchanged
from the previous forecast after that time.
 
Gaston continues its westward motion at 10 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. By Monday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
west-southwestward and possibly southwestward as the ridge builds
its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one and closely follows the track consensus guidance.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should diminish
by midday as Gaston moves away from the islands.
 
2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through midday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 38.6N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 38.9N  35.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  26/0000Z 38.7N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  26/1200Z 38.4N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 37.9N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 37.2N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z 36.8N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Gaston Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 250231
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082022               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Gaston Graphics

Tropical Storm Gaston 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 05:32:52 GMT

Tropical Storm Gaston 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:22:44 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY  INVESTIGATING IAN...
 As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 25
 the center of Ian was located near 14.7, -78.3
 with movement W at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 8A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022  

085 
WTNT34 KNHC 250543
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY 
INVESTIGATING IAN... 

 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 78.3 West.  Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday
and north on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near
or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday.  Ian will then move near
or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin soon.  Ian is expected to 
become a hurricane later today and reach major hurricane strength 
by late Monday before it reaches western Cuba.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman 
Brac by tonight or early Monday.  Hurricane conditions are possible 
within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early 
Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm 
watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches
 
Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches
 
Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.  Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week.  Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts
of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida
given already saturated antecedent conditions.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
 
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will 
spread to the Cayman Islands later today.  Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 250252
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...
MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  77.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  77.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  77.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N  79.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N  81.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N  82.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N  83.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N  84.5W...WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N  84.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N  84.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N  77.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250253
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
A NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter jet flew a surveillance around and 
across Ian at high altitude earlier this evening and dropped 
several dropsondes near the estimated center.  The surface winds 
from the instruments suggested that Ian had an elongated surface 
circulation from northwest to southeast, but one dropsonde in 
particular had a lower pressure than the others, which helped to 
located the center.  Some new convection has been forming near this 
location recently, which provides a little more confidence in the 
estimate.  The minimum pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, a consensus 
of satellite intensity estimates suggests that the maximum winds are 
now near 45 kt.

The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Ian expected 
to curve around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical 
ridge through the 5-day forecast period.  There has also been 
little change in the individual model solutions--the ECMWF remains 
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and the GFS remains on 
the western side.  Since there has been no significant change in 
the guidance, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous one through day 3, although it has been nudged slightly 
westward (again) on days 4 and 5 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 
the direction of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Ian is now in an environment of low shear and high atmospheric 
moisture and over waters of high ocean heat content.  Once the 
circulation becomes vertically stacked, which should be soon, these 
conditions favor rapid intensification (RI) while Ian moves over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Several RI indices support this 
scenario, with the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid 
Intensification Index (DTOPS) in particular showing a greater than 
90 percent chance of RI during the ensuing 48- and 72-hour forecast 
periods.  The NHC official forecast explicitly shows RI beginning 
on Sunday, with Ian predicted to peak at category 4 intensity over 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days.  

By days 4 and 5, global models are leaning toward a scenario where 
Ian enters into an environment of very strong southwesterly shear, 
and weakening is therefore expected while Ian approaches the coast 
of the Florida panhandle.  That said, Ian is likely to have an 
expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which 
will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge 
impacts despite any potential weakening.  Users are urged to not 
focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day forecasts 
and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may produce across 
portions of Florida.

 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash 
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, 
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.  Flash and urban flooding is 
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula 
through mid next week.  Additional flooding on rivers across 
northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out. 
 
2.  Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.
 
3.  Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday.  Hurricane and tropical 
storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba.
 
4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the long-term track 
and intensity forecast is higher than usual.  Regardless of Ian’s 
exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm 
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west 
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next 
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their 
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, 
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 14.7N  77.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.3N  79.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.6N  81.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 18.3N  82.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 20.1N  83.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 22.0N  84.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA
 72H  28/0000Z 23.9N  84.9W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  29/0000Z 27.2N  84.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 29.6N  84.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 250253
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  18(32)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  19(30)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  18(33)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  18(30)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  22(44)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  15(29)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  18(41)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  14(31)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  11(30)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  11(31)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   8(26)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   6(23)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   3(22)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   3(16)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   3(16)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  11(33)   2(35)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  29(33)  10(43)   2(45)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  22(43)   5(48)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  20(29)   6(35)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  35(53)   9(62)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   7(28)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  38(48)  15(63)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   9(27)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)  20(62)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  16(32)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  27(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  25(50)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  18(28)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  37(40)  24(64)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  16(36)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  43(50)  21(71)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  17(44)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  12(27)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  33(35)  21(56)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  15(29)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  18(32)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  14(25)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  14(25)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)  13(47)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  10(23)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   7(24)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  14(23)   3(26)   X(26)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)  48(84)   3(87)   X(87)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  49(60)   3(63)   X(63)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  38(43)   2(45)   X(45)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)  37(54)   4(58)   1(59)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   2(20)   X(20)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  45(53)  19(72)   1(73)   X(73)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  17(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   3( 4)  52(56)  10(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)  16(16)   8(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KINGSTON       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Ian Graphics

Tropical Storm Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 05:43:26 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:29:05 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Hermine (AT5/AL102022)

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR  ANOTHER DAY OR SO...
 As of 2:00 AM CVT Sun Sep 25
 the center of Hermine was located near 22.9, -20.3
 with movement N at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Hermine Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250232
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hermine Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
...HERMINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR 
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 20.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hermine 
was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 20.3 West. The 
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that 
time, a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a remnant 
low later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm)
inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
(250 mm) across the Canary Islands through Monday. This rainfall may
cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Hermine Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 250231
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  20.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  20.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  20.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.7N  19.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.2N  20.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N  21.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.1N  23.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  20.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Hermine Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250232
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly 
vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped 
away the cyclone's deep convection across the Canary Islands.  The 
advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI 
value from TAFB.  The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to 
50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal 
SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is 
fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will 
not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should 
become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast 
is unchanged from the previous one.
 
The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is 
expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves 
in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge.  After that 
time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it 
to turn west-northwestward or northwestward.  The NHC track forecast 
is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 22.9N  20.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 24.0N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 24.7N  19.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 25.2N  20.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 25.5N  21.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 26.1N  23.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Hermine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 250232
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102022               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Hermine Graphics

Tropical Depression Hermine 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 02:33:09 GMT

Tropical Depression Hermine 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:34:51 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250508
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Newton, located a few hundred miles southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Depression Newton (EP5/EP152022)

...NEWTON IS BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 24
 the center of Newton was located near 19.5, -114.8
 with movement W at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Newton Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 250234
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...NEWTON IS BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 114.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue overnight. A gradual turn toward the 
southwest is expected by late Sunday or early Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. 
Slow weakening is anticipated once Newton becomes a post-tropical 
remnant low, potentially as soon as tomorrow.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022  

860 
WTPZ25 KNHC 250233
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 114.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

053 
WTPZ45 KNHC 250234
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton 
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized, 
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which 
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of 
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a 
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment 
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and 
moderate wind shear. 

Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the 
next few days, various global models suggest it could become 
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that 
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different 
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical 
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming 
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.

Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the 
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday 
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official 
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and 
TVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Newton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 250234
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 115W       34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Newton Graphics

Tropical Depression Newton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 02:35:11 GMT

Tropical Depression Newton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 03:40:42 GMT