Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Peter, located a few hundred miles east of the northernmost 
Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Rose, 
located a few hundred miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde 
Islands.

An area of disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms located 
over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical 
wave that is moving off the west coast of Africa.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next 
several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week 
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A storm force non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of 
Odette, is located a couple of hundred miles south of Newfoundland. 
This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly 
eastward and then southeastward over warmer waters across the 
north-central Atlantic Ocean.  Additional information on this 
system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PETER A LITTLE STRONGER... ...PETER EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19
 the center of Peter was located near 18.6, -58.5
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021  

593 
WTNT31 KNHC 200249
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PETER A LITTLE STRONGER...
...PETER EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS
WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 58.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was 
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 58.5 West.  Peter is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in 
forward speed on Wednesday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some gradual weakening is forecast during the 
next several days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico
through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small
stream flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern 
Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by 
midweek.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021  

236 
WTNT21 KNHC 200248
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  58.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  58.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  58.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N  60.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N  62.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N  66.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N  67.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N  68.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N  68.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  58.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 200251
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
Peter is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery and microwave
data indicate that an earlier convective burst near the center of
Peter has collapsed tonight. Although the low-level center is now
displaced at least 60 n mi west of the edge of the convective cloud
mass, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Peter has found the cyclone is a bit stronger tonight. The aircraft
measured flight-level (925 mb) winds of 58 kt and SFMR winds of 45
kt or so. These data support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt
for this advisory.
 
Peter's wind field is very asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 120 n mi from the center only in its
northeast quadrant. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear that is plaguing the system is forecast to persist during
the next several days. Thus, despite sufficient oceanic heat content
along its forecast track, the official NHC intensity forecast does
not show any further intensification. In fact, some gradual 
weakening is forecast since the system appears likely to struggle 
sustaining organized convection near its center, as suggested by 
GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The official NHC 
intensity forecast has been adjusted upward in the near-term to 
account for the stronger initial intensity, but otherwise closely 
follows the HCCA and IVCN aids and shows gradual weakening this 
week. While the official NHC forecast shows Peter remaining a 
tropical cyclone through the forecast period, the GFS suggests 
Peter could struggle to even maintain its closed low-level 
circulation in the coming days. Therefore, it is plausible that the 
cyclone could degenerate into an open wave and weaken somewhat 
quicker than forecast.
 
Peter is moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt, along the 
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central 
Atlantic. This general motion should continue for the next couple of 
days. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes more challenging. A 
low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build over the western 
Atlantic by midweek, which would keep the weakening cyclone on a 
more northwestward trajectory. But, a mid-level shortwave is 
forecast to drop southward and erode the southern extent of the 
ridge, which should eventually draw Peter more northward during the 
middle and latter parts of the week. There is more spread noted in 
the track guidance at days 3-5, as the timing of this northward turn 
is uncertain. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted 
slightly to the left of the previous one, and it lies near the 
center of the guidance envelope and closer to the TVCA and HCCA 
aids.
 
Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday
across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward
Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 18.6N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.3N  60.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 20.1N  62.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 21.0N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 22.0N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 23.0N  67.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 23.9N  68.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 25.7N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 28.0N  67.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                              

596 
FONT11 KNHC 200249
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Peter Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 02:51:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 03:22:38 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)

...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19
 the center of Rose was located near 15.3, -31.1
 with movement NW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021  

138 
WTNT32 KNHC 200249
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 31.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 31.1 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly 
slower northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, 
upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is 
forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021  

139 
WTNT22 KNHC 200249
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  31.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  31.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  30.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N  32.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N  34.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N  35.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N  36.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N  37.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N  38.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N  40.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N  40.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  31.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200250
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
The center of Rose has been very difficult to locate in infrared 
satellite imagery this evening. However, an earlier ASCAT-A overpass 
as well as an SSMIS microwave image from around of the time of the 
previous advisory were both helpful in establishing the initial 
position, motion, and intensity of the tropical cyclone.  Rose's 
center is located on the eastern edge of the main convective mass 
due to some southeasterly shear.  The ASCAT ambiguity data revealed 
an area of 30-35 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the 
circulation, so the wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory.  
This is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 
form both SAB and TAFB.
 
The ASCAT data indicated that Rose is located slightly west of the
earlier estimates, and the initial motion estimate is now
northwestward or 320/14 kt.  The cyclone is forecast to move
generally northwestward during the next several days around the
southwestern and western portions of a subtropical ridge located
over the far eastern Atlantic. After day 4, a strong mid- to
upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause
Rose to turn northward.  The dynamical models are in reasonably 
good agreement through about 60-72 hours, but there is growing
east-to-west (cross-track) spread after that time. The NHC track 
forecast is not too different from the previous advisory, and lies 
close to the various consensus models in deference to the 
increasing model spread late in the period.
 
Rose has about 24 hours over warm waters and in low vertical wind 
shear conditions in which to strengthen, and the new NHC intensity 
forecast for that time is unchanged from before. After 24 hours, 
increasing westerly shear is likely to result in some gradual 
weakening.  A further increase in shear is anticipated by day 3 as 
Rose approaches the aforementioned trough.  This is likely to result 
in additional weakening, and Rose is forecast to weaken to a 
tropical depression by day 4.  Some of the global model guidance 
suggests that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and 
it is possible that Rose will degenerate into a remnant low by the 
end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 15.3N  31.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 16.9N  32.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 18.9N  34.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 20.9N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 22.6N  36.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 23.9N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 25.0N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 27.1N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 29.0N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                              

595 
FONT12 KNHC 200249
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Rose Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 02:51:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 03:28:39 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192313
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
within the next couple of days.  Thereafter, some gradual 
development of this system is possible while it moves generally 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle and latter 
parts of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 20 Sep 2021 04:05:44 GMT