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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191123
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today will weaken as a cold front
approaches the area from the west by tonight. The cold front
moves through the area tonight and into early Saturday, followed
by a secondary dry cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon.
High pressure builds in for the beginning of the week. A weak
frontal system will impact the region mid- week. High pressure
returns to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations in temperature and dew point.

Surface high pressure over the area will remain in place early
this morning and will gradually weaken and push out of the area
as a cold front approaches from the west into the afternoon.
Mainly dry conditions are expected for much of the day today
with the chance of showers increasing from west to east late
into the afternoon and into the evening with the approach of the
cold front. Highs will be in the middle to upper 50s.

Showers will likely continue overnight for much of the area as
the front pushes through. Much of the rainfall should be
tapering from west to east into early Saturday morning before
completely moving out of the area by midday Saturday. Lows
overnight will be in the middle to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the rainfall should be tapering from west to east into
early Saturday morning before completely moving out of the area
by midday Saturday. Total rainfall accumulation of generally
around a quarter inch or less is expected. Some areas to the
northeast of the area may see between a quarter inch and a half
inch of rain. A secondary cold front moves through during the
afternoon and evening Saturday and while it is expected to be a
dry passage, a stray shower can`t be ruled out. Temperatures on
Saturday should rebound nicely with highs in the middle to
potentially upper 60s for much of the area.

Surface high pressure will attempt to build back in from the
west Saturday night and into the second half of the weekend,
allowing for generally dry conditions with mostly clear skies.
Highs Sunday will be a bit cooler than Saturday with
temperatures in the upper 50s expected. With high pressure
building in and skies clearing out, lows both Saturday and
Sunday night may drop into the 30s for inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather through Tuesday.

A 500mb trough will move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with an
associated weak surface low and cold front. This system will
approach the region Tuesday night and move across the area on
Wednesday. Expect rain chances to increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The cold front moves east of the region Wednesday night
with drier weather returning to end the week.

Temperatures will remain near normal through much of the long term
period, except for Thursday, when temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area moves off the coast this afternoon.
A cold front will move across the area tonight.

Mainly VFR at all the area terminals. A few locations (KHPN)
remains at MVFR, but should quickly improve to VFR after 12z.
Showers may move into the western terminals late this afternoon.
However, conditions likely remain VFR until 00Z Saturday.
Conditions are then likely to fall to MVFR and IFR tonight.
There is a chance that MVFR cigs come in closer to 20z, and
included a tempo group to account for this. A return to VFR is
not expected until 12-15z Saturday morning, possibly later east
of NYC.

Light winds this morning become more easterly and then SE late
this morning morning into the afternoon. Winds become light and
variable with the front moving through the region, however
behind the front, winds shift to the W-NW around 10kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of showers and lower cigs Friday afternoon may be off by
an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers ending in the early
morning, becoming VFR. W-WNW winds G15-25 kt possible late.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt possible near the coast in the
afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA seas remain on the ocean waters through today with waves
near or just over 5 feet. Ocean seas may linger over 5 feet
into tonight or early Saturday morning, so the SCA may need to
be extended.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels
through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to
SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and
associated cold front to approach.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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